BEIJING – Due to the resilience and potentials of its economy, analysts believe that China will continue to be a reliable and important force of global economic growth in 2023.
This year, in the face of multiple challenges, China has maintained the overall stability of its economy by effectively coordinating the COVID-19 policy with economic and social development, and has introduced a series of stimulus packages to it supports enterprises, stabilizes consumer prices, and boosts global investor confidence.
The annual Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing from Thursday to Friday noted that China’s economic performance in 2023 is expected to witness a general recovery and improvement.
Fast growth prospect
Elaborating on the fiscal and monetary, industrial, science and technology, and social policies for 2023, the Central Economic Working Conference placed economic stability as a top priority and called for steady progress while ensure economic stability for the next year.
China also promised to continue expanding domestic demand and to give full play to the fundamental role of consumption and the leading role of investment in 2023, according to a meeting called by the Political Bureau of the Party Central Committee. Communist China earlier this month.
Considering the fact that Beijing has many political levers at its disposal to ensure a resilient recovery, observers predict that the Chinese economy will perform well in 2023.
The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva said that China has fiscal space to boost its economy and fight downward pressure.
“We see three to four quarters of strong growth, starting either in the 2Q or the 3Q of next year,” wrote analysts at the multinational financial services company Societe Generale, who forecast that the economy Chinese can achieve about 5 percent growth in 2023.
In a recent report, Morgan Stanley also predicted that China will rebound from mid-2023, achieving 5 percent growth in the full year.
Analysts’ optimism is built on multiple positive signs and indicators.
“Chinese equities are up 37 percent since early November after multiple positive signs of reopening from Beijing,” read a research note from UBS strategists Christopher Swann and Vincent Heaney on -Monday.
Meanwhile, a number of multinational companies are expanding their operations and investment in China. In the first 10 months, foreign direct investment in the Chinese mainland in actual use rose 17.4 percent year-on-year to $168.34 billion, official data showed.
Among the heavyweight investors is German automaker Volkswagen, which has announced investments of up to $3 billion in two new joint ventures focused on R&D in China in the second half of 2022 alone.
“The biggest firms that have sunk billions of dollars into local assets are staying put and pursuing their investment plans,” Rhodium Group said in a report published Tuesday, indicating investor confidence in China market outlook.
Optimized COVID strategy
With strengthened medical systems, new variants being tamed and 90 percent of the population armed with vaccines, China recently announced new measures to optimize control of its epidemic as its latest efforts to contain ix – the shocks of the pathogen on society and the economy, after the country managed to lead. to save as many lives as possible and achieve remarkable economic growth.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, China has kept both the COVID infection rate and the fatality rate much lower than other major countries’ figures.
China’s COVID control strategy makes it a “global model of the fight against the COVID pandemic”, Wolfram Elsner, professor of economics at the University of Bremen in Germany, told Xinhua.
While containing the virus during the pandemic, China has done well in minimizing economic losses and protecting people’s livelihoods. The country achieved GDP growth of 2.3 percent and 8.1 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
The recovery of China’s economy resulted from a rapid restart of Chinese industries thanks to the country’s policy package to stabilize the economy and the effective policy of controlling the COVID-19, he said Thong Mengdavid, a researcher at the Phnom Penh-based Asian Vision Institute.
Noting the recent measures to ease COVID-19 restrictions, Liang Guoyong, senior economist with the UN Conference on Trade and Development, observed that although change will inevitably bring some pain in short term, the adjustment is beneficial for the revitalization of economic activities and confidence in business, pushing the economy back on a healthy growth path.
Looking ahead to 2023, China’s economy is expected to show a strong recovery, with growth momentum considerably strengthened, Liang said. “This will provide an important impetus to the growth of the world economy and contribute to its overall stability.”
A major engine for global growth
As the world’s second largest consumer market, the second largest source of foreign investment and a major trading partner of more than 130 countries and regions, China remains committed to promoting openness of high level and accelerate efforts to foster a new development paradigm.
Through multilateral mechanisms such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership, China has become even more closely linked with its global and regional partners, many of whom pin their hopes on robust recovery of the Chinese economy to give strong momentum in the Chinese economy. the world in the near future.
“China is one of the most important economic partners, business partners for all countries and businesses,” Jan Knoerich, a senior lecturer in China economics at King’s College London, told Xinhua. “What it does and how it is doing its economy has an impact on the global economy and influences the global economy.”
“With such a large economy of scale, China is playing its role and is turning out to be a land of eastern opportunities,” said Badiea Shaukat, an economic adviser at the Policy Institute for Sustainable Development, an Islamabad-based think tank.
In the first 11 months, China’s trade in goods grew 8.6 percent year-on-year to 38.34 trillion yuan ($5.5 trillion), with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations being the its largest trading partner, official data showed.
The growth “proves that China has opened its market wider to the world and actively participated in international trade even during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Joseph Matthews, a senior professor at -BELTEI International University in Phnom Penh.
China has effectively coordinated the prevention of COVID-19 while maintaining its economic and social development, and will continue to be a stabilizing force in the region and the world, said Coskun Kucukozmen, professor of commerce and finance at Izmir University of Economics of Türkiye.